Johnson Ekes Out a Win to Stay Speaker, But Dicey Proceedings Signal Trouble For Trump

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In the end, the threat of a far-right revolt turned out to be more real than expected, as Republican Mike Johnson initially came up short Friday on the first ballot of his bid to stay Speaker. Only after some backroom arm-twisting and plenty of public embarrassment did he prevail on a day that offered an early sign that Republicans will struggle to achieve a unified governing majority in the second Trump era.

Johnson, a Louisiana Republican who was elevated to House Speaker just over a year ago, is contending with grumbling in the far-right flank of the GOP over spending, deficits, and personalities. But ultimately, the argument being made by many Republicans that the House could ill afford an early-hours intra-party squabble was insufficient to spare the GOP a family fight from the start. The scramble—disruptive but not shocking at this point in a chamber marked by its proud dysfunction—stood to delay Monday’s vote to certify President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, had Johnson not turned things around.

“We have a mandate,” Johnson said in his first speech after the vote cleared him to power, blowing right past the tricky path there. “People want an American First agenda.” It was a clear invocation of Trump’s shorthand for a nationalist policy platform—and a nod that Johnson sees the House as a partner to the incoming Administration.

Ahead of the vote on Friday, Johnson made his way through the aisles and posed for pictures, transmitting every confidence of a crowned prince ascendant. Freedom Caucus firebrand Jim Jordan clapped him on the shoulder in the well and Marjorie Taylor Greene chatted him up. Kat Cammack, who was among the 139 House Republicans who refused to accept Trump’s loss in 2020, made a point of stopping by Johnson’s klatch on the floor. 

But there were signs of nervousness as his loyalists subtly wandered from lawmaker to lawmaker to make sure there were no unknowns on the horizon. In the current Republican configuration, nothing is certain until the last vote has been counted and the counting ends. The voting had stopped with Johnson two votes shy, but House officials did not announce a final tally as Johnson huddled with the holdouts, hoping for a resolution that would spare his lawmakers the kind of marathon balloting that put him in power in 2023. His gambit worked, at least for the time being.

Republicans won 220 seats in last year’s elections but that number is expected to fall. Already, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida—briefly a nominee to be Trump’s Attorney General before he withdrew amid unforgiving scrutiny about his history with drugs, cash, and underaged girls—resigned his seat. Similarly, two House Republicans are expected to leave their seats if confirmed to senior administration roles with Trump, although both voted for Johnson from their current seats. 

Under the chamber’s makeup as of Friday, Johnson needed 218 votes if all members are voting, although Speakers have been elected with as few as 216 votes. Johnson landed 218 in the end.

Democrats currently have 215 seats, yielding Republicans an absolutely wobbly majority. 

That shaky hold over the chamber soured hopes that there would be a quick acquiescence to putting in place a Leadership team that had the support from Trump. The President-elect’s endorsement of Johnson—touted repeatedly from the floor as lawmakers cast their votes—proved insufficient for the instant assembly but ultimately got him across the finish line.

The incoming GOP Leadership team tried to put the best face forward as representative of the results of the last election, even as top hands fretted that yet another protracted race to run the chamber was on deck.

“They simply want to provide for their children and provide for a prosperous future,” House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain of Michigan said in her nominating speech for Johnson. “With Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and President Donald J. Trump in charge,” she said, interrupted by a standing applause, “we have the opportunity to put America first again.”

But that first found of voting suggested that none of those three Republicans were actually in charge of anything meaningful or durable.

Reps. Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar of Arizona, Michael Cloud of Texas, Andy Harris of Maryland, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, Michael Waltz of Florida, and Chip Roy of Texas withheld their votes for Johnson when their names were called. Ultimately, all voted for Johnson once it was clear that their votes would not matter because others had already delayed the sitting Speaker on the first vote.

Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky—no fan of Johnson—voted for Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota. Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina voted for Jim Jordan of Ohio. Rep. Keith Self of Texas voted for Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida. That gave Johnson three Republicans voting against him, when he could only afford one such defection if everyone voted.

In the end, only Massie held the line against Johnson.

In a chamber where stragglers’ votes matter more than any true majority, it was an early sign that the 119th Congress that began on Friday would be a far cry from the rubberstamp that Trump’s allies had hoped for. What typically is a settled matter by the time Jan. 3 arrives in odd-numbered years turned into an afternoon of acrimony as lawmakers and their families shuffled in the balconies and hallways awaiting receptions. Even Johnson looked ready to call it a day as he patiently waited for his lieutenants to do their work and end the very tiny but incredibly problematic revolt.

Democrats, as expected, selected Hakeem Jeffries as their top hand with zero drama, although Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi elicited a standing ovation when she entered the chamber. She arrived at the Capitol with the help of a walker, still recovering from a hip replacement surgery after a fall in Luxembourg. On the floor, she leaned on her desk directly across the aisle from Jeffires as wellwishers came to pay their respects, but when it came time to stand with cheers for her successor as the top Democrat in the chamber, she joined in without any assistance. 

While Republicans have the slimmest of majorities, there is a begrudging recognition that anything of substance will almost certainly require Democratic votes, as some Republicans are expected to never fall in line, no matter the stakes or consequences. It’s why Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar of California not-so-subtly called their party “the governing majority,” a nod to recent votes that required Democratic votes to keep the government’s lights on through the holiday season.

While the Senate is also in Republican hands, most serious pieces of legislation will require 60 votes to get past a procedural vote. Republicans have a sparse 53 votes.

All of that, of course, assumes Republicans can keep it together in the simple-majority House. Given the first vote of this Congress started without a unified Republican front, it’s a warning sign that Trump may not get the blank check he is expecting. Even a handful of defections can send a priority spiraling, and Republicans seem incapable of breaking their case of the spins.

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