Thunder vs. Mavericks odds, score prediction, time: 2024 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets from proven model

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Game 1 between the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder and the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Western Conference semifinals tips off on Tuesday. The Thunder took care of business in Round 1 of the 2024 NBA playoffs, sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans. Meanwhile, Dallas outlasted the Los Angeles Clippers 4-2. Maxi Kleber (shoulder) is out for Dallas. 

Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Mavericks vs. Thunder odds via SportsLine consensus. The over/under for total points is 218.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Thunder vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA betting lines and trends for Mavs vs. Thunder:

Mavericks vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -3.5Mavericks vs. Thunder over/under: 218.5 pointsMavericks vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -164, Dallas +138OKC: The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 34 of their last 39 games at homeDAL: The Dallas Mavericks have hit the game total Under in 41 of their last 63 gamesMavericks vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLineWhy the Thunder can cover

Guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a versatile and lengthy presence in the backcourt. Gilgeous-Alexander has impressive body control when driving to the rim and owns a reliable mid-range jumper. In the first round, he averaged team-highs in scoring (27.2) and assists (5). In his last game, the 25-year-old had 24 points, 10 boards and three assists.

Forward Chet Holmgren (7'1) is another lengthy and disruptive force. Holmgren has been a consistent shot blocker and has a knack for scoring from all three levels. He also has the speed to take defenders off the dribble. The Gonzaga product leads the team in both rebounds (8.8) and blocks (2.8) with 15.3 points per game this postseason. On April 24, Holmgren tallied 26 points, seven boards and two blocks. See which team to pick here. 

Why the Mavericks can cover 

Guard Luka Doncic is an all-around playmaker. Doncic has outstanding passing ability and gets into the lane with ease. He has a smooth jumper while breaking through defenders constantly. He leads the team in scoring (29.8), rebounds (8.8) and assists (9.5). In the Game 6 win over the Clippers, Doncic tallied 28 points, seven rebounds and 13 assists.

Guard Kyrie Irving continues to score at a high rate for the Mavs. The eight-time All-Star can take over any contest and owns a silky smooth jumper. He logs 26.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists per contest in the NBA playoffs 2024. In his last outing, Irving dropped 30 points, four assists and made five 3-pointers. See which team to pick here. 

How to make Mavericks vs. Thunder picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 226 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 70% of simulations. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread cashes in nearly 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Thunder spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.