NBA picks, best bets for playoff games today: Josh Hart will keep firing in Knicks vs. 76ers, AD cools off

Now that the 2024 NBA postseason has begun, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

The Game 1 over/under was 207.5. I correctly told you to bet the under, and the final total was 180 points. The Game 2 over/under started at 202.5, but eventually crept up by as many as three points before tip. I advised you to take a prop, but that any under at a total above 195 was a good pick. Well, the total wound up at 182. The Game 3 over/under started at 198.5. It's already crept up by at least one point at most books. Overeager early bettors think they're getting an advantageous line there relative to where the series started. They're overthinking this. These teams can't score against one another. The Pick: Under 199.5

Josh Hart attempted eight 3s in Game 1 and seven in Game 2. Nick Nurse has made it very clear that his game-plan is going to be "leave Hart open, accept his 3s." This is a common playoff tactic, a way of playing certain players off of the floor. The idea is that they'll either A) miss so many that they lose confidence or B) refuse to take the shots at all, grinding the offense to a halt. Josh Hart is not going to lose confidence. He's going to keep firing. And even if he misses 10 of them, it won't matter. Tom Thibodeau played him all 48 minutes in Game 2. He's staying on the floor and he's getting a million open opportunities. He's likely not going to remain as hot as he's been in the first two games of this series, but if I can bank on seven or eight attempts, making two seems relatively safe. The Pick: Hart Over 1.5 3's.

Anthony Davis has scored 32 points in each of the first two games of this series, but the Nuggets made a smart adjustment in the second half of Game 2 by putting Aaron Gordon on him rather than Nikola Jokic. The primary goal this accomplished was making the Davis-LeBron James pick-and-roll switchable, but it had the added benefit of putting a more versatile overall defender on Davis. With the smaller Kentavious Caldwell-Pope now guarding LeBron James and mismatches on the two Laker guards, I'm expecting the Laker offense to look elsewhere. The Pick: Anthony Davis Under 25.5 points